SET THE TARGET AND THE RAMP
The number, and the shape of the year. At a 20% monthly ramp, more than half the year's revenue and ad spend land in the last four months, which decides when the cash is needed.
FIELD REPORT 18 · PLANNING · OPERATOR METHOD
From a revenue target to a media plan
Every founder has a number, like $10M in 12 months. Most plans answer it with a spend figure and a hope. I back-solve it: the target becomes customers per month, customers become spend at a CAC, and retention decides how much of the target you buy and how much you earn back.
12months back-solved
from one number
from one number
30days to prove
the biggest lever
the biggest lever
● PLAN PREVIEWILLUSTRATIVE DEFAULTS
REVENUE TARGET · 12 MONTHS$10,000,000
- FIRST ORDERS
- RENEWALS AND REPEATS
- MARKETPLACE
- AD SPEND
NEW STORE CUSTOMERS, MONTH 11,575
AD SPEND, 12 MONTHS$3.33M
PAYBACK PER CUSTOMER2 months
01 THE PLANNER
Put in the number. The plan falls out.
Move a slider or type a value. The model solves month 1 so the twelve months sum to the target, then reads off spend, payback and the exit run rate. Illustrative defaults. Replace with your own numbers.
● GROWTH MODEL · 12 MONTHS · SUBSCRIPTION CONSUMABLEILLUSTRATIVE DEFAULTS. REPLACE WITH YOUR OWN NUMBERS.
The address bar keeps these numbers.
AD SPEND · 12 MONTHS$3.33M$2.80M store, $525K marketplace
MONTH 1 AD SPEND$77.9K1,575 new store customers
MONTH 12 AD SPEND · THE PEAK$632K11,701 new store customers
EXIT RUN RATE · MONTH 12 REVENUE$2.02Ma month, or $24.2M a year
CONTRIBUTION AFTER MARKETING$1.67M12 months: gross margin less all ad spend
NEW STORE CUSTOMERS · 12 MONTHS62,330bought at a $45 blended CAC
ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS · MONTH 1215,791renewing, plus new in month 12
BLENDED MER3.00xtotal revenue divided by total ad spend
PAYBACK · PER STORE CUSTOMER2 monthsafter the first order, on contribution
12 MONTH LTV:CAC1.92$86.52 contribution per customer against a $45 CAC
To hit $10.0M in 12 months: 1,575 new store customers in month 1, growing 20% a month, and $3.33M in ad spend. Each store customer pays back in 2 months.
MONTHLY REVENUE, STACKED · AD SPEND AS THE LINEHOVER, TAP OR USE THE ARROW KEYS
MONTH 12
REVENUE$2,016,012
FIRST ORDERS$643,535
RENEWALS AND REPEATS$666,873
MARKETPLACE$705,604
AD SPEND$632,369
NEW STORE CUSTOMERS11,701
- FIRST ORDERS $3.43M
- RENEWALS AND REPEATS $3.07M
- MARKETPLACE $3.50M
- AD SPEND $3.33M
MONTH BY MONTH TABLE
| MONTH | NEW STORE CUSTOMERS | FIRST ORDERS | RENEWALS AND REPEATS | MARKETPLACE | TOTAL REVENUE | AD SPEND | CONTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,575 | $86,612 | $0 | $46,637 | $133,249 | $77,860 | −$11,235 |
| 2 | 1,890 | $103,934 | $30,425 | $72,347 | $206,706 | $95,889 | $7,464 |
| 3 | 2,268 | $124,721 | $62,838 | $100,994 | $288,553 | $117,194 | $27,082 |
| 4 | 2,721 | $149,666 | $98,252 | $133,494 | $381,412 | $142,478 | $48,228 |
| 5 | 3,265 | $179,599 | $137,790 | $170,902 | $488,291 | $172,580 | $71,566 |
| 6 | 3,918 | $215,519 | $182,720 | $214,437 | $612,676 | $208,499 | $97,839 |
| 7 | 4,702 | $258,622 | $234,499 | $265,527 | $758,648 | $251,429 | $127,895 |
| 8 | 5,643 | $310,347 | $294,815 | $325,856 | $931,018 | $302,798 | $162,711 |
| 9 | 6,771 | $372,416 | $365,650 | $397,420 | $1,135,486 | $364,317 | $203,426 |
| 10 | 8,125 | $446,899 | $449,339 | $482,590 | $1,378,828 | $438,033 | $251,380 |
| 11 | 9,751 | $536,279 | $548,650 | $584,192 | $1,669,121 | $526,403 | $308,158 |
| 12 | 11,701 | $643,535 | $666,873 | $705,604 | $2,016,012 | $632,369 | $375,637 |
| 12 MO | 62,330 | $3,428,149 | $3,071,851 | $3,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $3,329,849 | $1,670,151 |
On a phone the table shows totals. The strip above the chart breaks down any month.
Store revenue is built by cohort. Each month's new customers place a first order; after that, subscribers renew at the renewal value less monthly churn, and one time buyers reorder at the repeat rate. Marketplace revenue is a set share of the total and costs TACoS in ads. Returns, extra discounts and cash timing are left out. The twelve months always sum to the target.
02 THE METHOD
Six steps. The first version takes an afternoon.
The chain runs from the number to the spend. Retention is the loop in the middle: every renewal is revenue the budget doesn't have to buy again.
PIN DOWN THE UNIT ASSUMPTIONS
First order value, subscribe share, monthly churn, repeat rate, gross margin. Each comes from store data where it exists and from a marked guess where it doesn't, so everyone can see which numbers still need measuring.
BACK-SOLVE MONTH 1
Revenue in every month is a multiple of month 1 volume, so one division finds how many new customers month 1 needs for the year to sum to the target. The ramp sets every month after it.
READ THE PLAN
Total ad spend, payback, the peak month, the exit run rate, contribution after marketing. If payback runs past the cash on hand, the plan fails on paper, which is the cheapest place for it to fail.
FIND THE BIGGEST LEVER
Move one input at a time and watch the spend the year needs. The lever with the biggest effect gets the first 30 days: one test built to prove it moves.
REPLACE EVERY ASSUMPTION
As the first cohorts come in, each guess is swapped for a measured number. Within a month most of the model runs on real data, and it becomes the weekly scoreboard: plan against actual, month by month.
Every guess has a date when a measured number replaces it.
| INPUT | MEASURED FROM | FIRST READ |
|---|---|---|
| FIRST ORDER VALUE | First orders on the store, after discounts | WEEK ONE |
| SUBSCRIBE SHARE | Share of first orders that start a subscription | WEEK ONE |
| GROSS MARGIN | COGS, shipping and payment fees per order | WEEK ONE, FROM THE P&L |
| MARKETPLACE SHARE, TACOS | Marketplace sales report and its ad console | WEEK ONE |
| BLENDED CAC | Store ad spend divided by new store customers, weekly | FIRST TWO WEEKS OF SPEND |
| CHURN, RENEWAL VALUE | Subscribers still active at each renewal, by cohort, and what they paid | FIRST RENEWAL DATE |
| REPEAT RATE | One time buyers who order again, by cohort month | MONTH TWO |
03 THE LEVER
One lever is worth the first 30 days.
Each bar reruns the planner with one input moved and the target held, and shows the change in the ad spend the year needs. It reads the inputs above, so a new scenario reranks the bars.
● WHICH LEVER MOVES THE PLAN MOSTBASE PLAN · $3.33M AD SPEND FOR $10.0M
- 01MARKETPLACE SHARE +10 PTS35% to 45% of revenueFIRST 30 DAYS−8.5%$282K less spend
- 02BLENDED CAC −10%$45.00 to $40.50−8.4%$280K less spend
- 03SUBSCRIBE SHARE +10 PTS40% to 50%−7.0%$233K less spend
- 04FIRST ORDER VALUE +10%$55.00 to $60.50−4.7%$157K less spend
- 05CHURN −3 PTS15% to 12% a month−3.4%$115K less spend
- 06REPEAT RATE +3 PTS6% to 9% a month−2.7%$89.8K less spend
At these inputs, marketplace share +10 pts moves the plan most: it cuts the ad spend the year needs by 8.5%, about $282K.
The point is the top bar. That is the lever worth the first 30 days, and I prove it moves before the budget scales.
Each move is a fixed step: CAC 10% lower, subscribe share 10 points higher, churn 3 points lower, first order value 10% higher, repeat rate 3 points higher, marketplace share 10 points higher. The steps are the same size on paper and very different in effort. The bars say what each one is worth; the first 30 days say what it costs.
04 WHERE IT COMES FROM
I learned it on my own ad accounts, then at about $2M a month.
I built and sold my own ecommerce business on Shopify and Amazon FBA. It did about $1M in revenue in its first full year, and scaling it taught me to read spend against payback. ROAS told me an ad sold something. Payback told me whether I could afford to keep buying.
At Match Group I ran subscription acquisition at about $2M a month. The subscription levers in this planner are what two of my other field reports are about.
FIELD REPORT 17 · FOUNDER
~$1M
in revenue in the first full year of my own Shopify and Amazon FBA business. Then I sold it.
READ THE REPORT → FIELD REPORT 05 · SUBSCRIPTION · MATCH GROUP +13%first time paid subscribers from a paywall test, net of churn.
READ THE REPORT → FIELD REPORT 13 · SUBSCRIPTION · PICNIIC +25%subscription revenue from a free trial redesign, and the lift held.
READ THE REPORT →The spend number is the last thing the model tells you. The first thing it tells you is which assumption to go prove.
The model is a planning tool. Defaults are illustrative, not data from any client. The three results above are from my own reporting at the time, and each linked report says where its numbers come from.